Ominous… [Dirty Dozen]

“When traders think about money management, they think about stops and trade management. But a big part of the equation is knowing when to go all in, increase the leverage and press your trading to the hilt. Load the boat. These opportunities have an increase in volume and volatility. There is no point in actively trading in a dull market. Let the market tip its hand and come to life first. And then if you are fortunate to be in the groove and know you’ve got a tiger by the tail, milk it for all it is worth. This is where the real money is made.” ~ Linda Raschke

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we argue why we should expect continued chop and vol in equities. We then look at USD trades, a correction coming in PMs, and a long natural gas setup. 

1. The Qs closed below their 1 ½ month sideways range. And like we said last week, it’s a good time to respect this break below key support and not be too eager to buy the dip.

2. Our weekly Nervous & Numb indicator (yellow line) triggered an official sell signal two weeks ago. And with elevated Trend Fragility (green line) it’s likely we see more vol and chop with risks to the downside over the near term. 

3. Our market internals aggregator remains in neutral territory. We haven’t seen the large negative divergences that tend to precede more significant tops, which tells us this is likely a run-of-the-mill correction within a broader uptrend. 

4. BofA’s Bull & Bear indicator (which offers a longer-term look at positioning /sentiment) remains squarely in neutral territory. 

 
5. The SPX Cycle composite from NDR feels about right for what we should expect over the next month or so.

6.  Here are the highlights from the latest BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

7. The market is moving off of rates which are moving off of a resetting of expectations around growth and inflation. And with a forward PE of around 25x, the market is more susceptible to large swings around revisions to expectations. 

8. This chart from BBG’s Simon White shows the number of Hindenburg Omens (on an annual basis) is more elevated than those seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble. 

9. We’ve been long precious metals since the start of the year. But as we pointed out last week, the short-term picture looks rocky with high sentiment/positioning and stretched technicals. Expect a corrective period to begin soon.

10. We’re long USD through a number of pairs but positioning is at extremes in some of the crosses. One of these is AUDUSD which we’re considering playing for a tactical long if its most recent breakdown proves to be a bear trap.

11. Natural gas is coiling in a tight bottoming wedge. Compression regimes like these tend to lead to expansion regimes (big trends). 

 
12. Natty producer Antero Resources (AR) is trading within an 18-month sideways range (chart is a monthly). This is solid price action considering Natty has done nothing but trended lower over the same period. We’d consider getting long on a confirmed bullish breakout above the $30 level.

Thanks for reading.